My views are my own and they do not constitute investment advice. My views are derived from Equiduct’s unique data set which represents a clean retail signal free of distortion from institutional investors and therefore are telling of what the sentiment of European retail investors is.
Without further ado, let’s dive right into it!
Last week …
Was the quietest week of the year so far in terms of volumes. It could very much be the calm before the storm however.
The week started slowly, as was expected, due to the President’s Day holiday in the US and the Lunar New Year holidays in Asia.
Wednesday was the busiest day after tech stocks received a boost from NVIDIA announcing a multi-year deal to sell Meta AI chips.
Uncertainty around the negotiations between the US and Iran persisted throughout the week and Oil prices hit a six month high.
Santander and ASML battled it out for most traded stock last week, with Santander taking top spot on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday and ASML triumphing on Tuesday and Friday.
Paris also had a busy week with Q4 result announcements for the likes of Airbus and Air Liquide boosting volatility.
The week ended with a Supreme Court ruling that Trump’s tariffs were not legal and Trump has announced new blanket tariffs over the weekend.
This week …
Has the potential to be one of the busiest of the year with a number of different factors which could trigger volatility in the markets.
The Supreme Court ruling on Friday is one of them. Regular readers of this blog will be aware that we have been waiting on this decision for a number of weeks now.
Whilst the outcome wasn’t completely unexpected, it does create a lot of uncertainty in markets and raises a number of questions. Trump has already announced new tariffs in response but markets have seen this before and an eventual climb down is now partially expected.
This week is fairly light on Economic events but one everyone will be waiting for will be NVIDIA’s Q4 results after the close on Wednesday. Such is the size of this stock now that any deviation from expectations has the potential to trigger tech sector volatility which then reverberates around the markets.
We are also due to receive numerous other Q4 updates this week including Telefonica, Iberdrola, IAG, Bayer, Leonardo and Schneider Electric.
Another factor creating uncertainty is the geopolitical situation in the middle east. The US have built up a huge military presence in the area and Iran last week carried out exercises in the strait of Hormuz.
This contributed to rising oil prices with any escalation having the potential to have a large impact on global trade. Trump has given Iran a deadline of 10-15 days to agree to a deal.
The VIX index is now up close to twenty. There are many factors causing a lot of uncertainty. What will Trump do next with Tariffs? Is the situation in the middle eats going to come to a head this week? Will NVIDIA’s results come in below expectations? The outlook for the week is bearish but let’s see how things develop.
That’s all from me, until next week… Happy investing!
Carl
