My views are my own and they do not constitute investment advice. My views are derived from Equiduct’s unique data set which represents a clean retail signal free of distortion from institutional investors and therefore are telling of what the sentiment of European retail investors is.
Without further ado, let’s dive right into it!
Last week …
Saw more positive momentum for European markets with the STOXX 600 up 0.9% on the week.
Volumes didn’t hit the heights of the previous week but we still managed a very healthy €2.8billion on Equiduct.
It’s been a fantastic start to 2026 so far with average daily volumes up 73% on January 2025!
BBVA continues to be the most popular stock although ASML again came very close to top spot.
Amsterdam had another busy week on Equiduct with ASML the most traded stock on both Thursday and Friday after TSMC (an important producer of advanced chips) posted strong Q4 results.
Away from the main markets, Swiss stocks had a busy week with a new turnover record on Equiduct being set on Wednesday.
This week …
Is a tricky one to weigh up for investors. For a start, Monday is a US holiday and markets will be closed for Martin Luther King day. This often results in subdued trading volumes in European markets.
However, Donald Trump doesn’t like to let a weekend pass without doing something dramatic. This weekend was no different as he threatened tariffs on European countries who do not share his vision for a US acquisition of Greenland.
So there is definitely the possibility of volatility in European markets on Monday morning. It’s quite difficult to gauge to what extent markets will react at this point. Firstly, the tariffs wont come in to affect until the 1st of February which means the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) has to be a possibility. Q1 2025 saw tariffs being threatened on countries left right and centre causing widespread volatility in markets. However, the threat of tariffs turned out to be a negotiation tactic as the tariffs that ended up being imposed were far less than first anticipated in the majority of cases.
A pattern has emerged of Trump making threats on a range of different topics, only to be persuaded to change his mind or to limit the threatened consequences if he thinks he has got a deal in his favour.
This makes it very difficult to know how much to read into what he says. Markets have been reacting with less extreme swings as they have got used to his outbursts.
Q4 earnings season also starts to ramp up a little this week with Bankinter and LVMH, two popular Equiduct stocks, releasing results this week.
The Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump’s Tariff is due imminently and has the potential to jolt markets. Will it be this week?
Developments in Iran will again be closely watched with the possibility of US involvement which would have wider ramifications for the middle east and world markets.
Plenty to weigh up this week then. I think it will be another busy week ahead.
That’s all from me, until next week… Happy investing!
Carl
