Hi, my name is Carl Rogan and every Monday morning I will be bringing you my views of what happened during the previous week and what to look out for in the coming week.
My views are my own and they do not constitute investment advice. My views are derived from Equiduct’s unique data set which represents a clean retail signal free of distortion from institutional investors and therefore are telling of what the sentiment of European retail investors is.
Without further ado, let’s dive right into it!
Last week …
Was very similar to the previous week. Reasonable volumes for this time of year but not as busy as it might be considering the oil shock markets are currently experiencing.
The week started slowly with low volumes on Monday and Tuesday before finishing strongly on Thursday and Friday.
Market sentiment continued to be bearish with most major indices experiencing a fourth straight week of losses.
There were numerous interest rate decisions from central banks around the world but the main driver was again the Middle East conflict.
Unsurprisingly, energy companies saw high levels of turnover again last week with Total Energies the most traded stock.
Total Energies, Repsol and Shell were all in the top five most traded stocks and combined turnover was over €300million.
Paris was the most traded market on Equiduct for a second week in a row with Madrid relatively quiet compared to earlier in Q1.
This week …
Will be more of the same. The Middle East conflict and the knock-on effect to oil prices is set to dominate the week again.
It is a relatively quiet week in terms of Economic events with Inflation updates from several markets being the main highlight.
These are February inflation numbers however and so already very out of date with inflation figures sure to see an uptick in March.
It’s hard to see it not being another week of losses for the major indices as oil prices continue to rise, share prices will continue to fall.
No quick resolution is expected, and the US is now in the embarrassing position of having to ease sanctions on Iranian oil in order to increase supply and stop prices soaring further.
Every US recession since the second world war, bar the pandemic, has followed a spike in oil prices. There is a real fear that another one could be on the way now.
The US, compared to Europe, is relatively lightly impacted by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz as they are a net exporter of oil. However, this restriction of supply is raising prices everywhere.
Oil prices impact so many different industries and markets and is one of the main drivers of inflation. The ECB is now expected to raise interest rates whilst the chances of a cut in the US look to have evaporated for 2026.
Whilst markets have been busy, I’m a little surprised volumes haven’t been higher. I think one reason could be that levels of uncertainty are so high now that many retail investors are choosing to wait before investing. How can you “buy the dip” when you have no idea how much further markets will fall? It will be interesting to see how things progress this week.
That’s all from me, until next week… Happy investing!
Carl
